The Fix Is In!

As a follow-up to my 7/21 blog on the NBA referee scandal, today Donaghy pleaded guilty to 2 felony counts of providing 'picks' on the outcome of games he officiated. There was no admission nor mention of him fixing those games and affecting the outcome of them, and apparently he is not being charged with that. "In determining his picks for NBA games, Donaghy admitted that he relied on nonpublic and other information to which he had unique access by virtue of his position as an NBA referee. That information included his knowledge of the officiating crews for upcoming NBA games, the interactions between certain referees and certain players and team personnel."

The DOJ press release further said, that approximately 4 years ago, Donaghy started betting on NBA games, including games he officiated. The fact that this had been going on for at least 4 years without the league noticing something was fishy, gives the lie to Stern's boasting that his referees are the most scrutinized and monitored among all professional referees.

But the big elephant in the living room is that, when the games he officiated in 2006-07 are examined, the betting on 15 of them that moved the point-spread by at least 1.5 points, beat the Las Vegas line 15 out of 15 times and resulted in big wins for those who gambled on them! The odds of this happening randomly, are 32,768 to 1.

Also starting 2 seasons ago, Donaghy started calling more fouls on average, than previously. And in 14 games he refereed, the winner was decided by a SINGLE bucket or less! It appears that he was betting on the point spread instead of the over-and-under, so he had an incentive to change the outcome of those games.

It appears that Stern has made a deal to limit the scope of the charges against Donaghy. This gives Stern the ability to say that no games were fixed because it was not explicitly stated nor charged. Knowing Stern, this is exactly what he will do. He's going to try and convince us that this is more of an 'insider trading' type scandal, rather than a price-fixing scandal. It also means that if he is successful in his spin, then what actually occurred during those games will never be revealed.

That's why I think the fix is in! - stay tuned - there's much more to be analyzed and uncovered!